Where will the weekly high/low be?

What days provide what opportunities? Is any particular day more likely to print the weekly high or low than others. Well looking at the stats there is a big chance the high or low on Monday will be the high or low for the week, twice as likely than the high/lows for Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday. And that the same applies for Friday.

Going back to the start of 2002 there has been 428 weeks of trading, with 239 (55%) of them positive when looking at the week open compared to the week close of the XJO (ASX 200 index). Now have a look at what day the weekly high or low has occurred on,

Clearly there is momentum carrying on throughout the week. And look at Fridays. Its very likely that if the week is positive that momentum will carry through to print a high on the last day, 135 highs on Friday almost double the 3 days before, as well as momentum for a low on Friday.

Looking at more recent period there is a similar distribution of moves from the start of 2009 to now.

So today is Monday and we have just opened at the top of last weeks range. The chances are that today's highs or lows will be one of the highs or lows for the week. If its the low, that is a positive week, we can expect a break to put us up somewhere near the January highs AND expect that momentum is likely to last until Friday. On the flip side as we probe last weeks range highs that could be it for this week, dropping us back into last weeks range.

Something to frame the rest of the weeks trades from.

Comments

[StuntTrader]

Surprising that there have been more weekly lows than highs on a Monday.
Equally unexpected that there have been more weekly highs than lows on a Friday.
Not what I would have thought.
Thanks
ST

[THT]

I'm not surprised about the weekly highs on Fridays. You often see 5 day patterns lasting throughout the week.

[Stu]

Insightful analysis. Something to build a strategy around.....

[jkw]

Is it actually something related to day of the week? I would expect that the first and last day of a time period would be more likely to have the high and low. Any trending market is likely to make its high at one end of a time period and its low at the other end. If you look at an offset week, like Wednesday-Tuesday, what are the results?

[THT]

Jkw interesting comments. I will try the same for a Wednesday-Tuesday week so we can see.