Last week the markets off-sided most with 5% gains while people were looking for sense to come back to this delusional rise and start the next leg of the bear run. After all its reporting season and that's got to mean a sell off on bad news - right? Nope the ASX XJO had the 5th best weekly percentage gain since the bear market started(5.33%).
So the bears got the shaft last week but surely this week they will fight back and smash the market? Well maybe not. Since this Bear market has started in late 07 we have had 11 weekly gains greater than 4%. The week after such gains has averaged -0.5% against the average weekly loss for that whole period of -0.28%. So there is a bearish bias there but looking at the figures a little more we can see that there are 5 down weeks and 6 up weeks. Most interesting is we have two weeks that are right in the savage part of bear market in late 08. Weeks where I don't think we will see down moves again for some time. Without those two weeks the weekly move after a 4% or greater gain would be a 0.66% gain!!
I don't see any great edge in being bearish because of the gains last week.
Hi i am new to this just a test to see how it works.Cheers Jake
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Posted by: JAKE | July 22, 2009 at 09:24 PM
You Made Some Good Points There. I Did a Search on the Topic and Found Most People Will Agree with Your Words. Thank You!
Jessica
Posted by: Forex India | August 06, 2009 at 09:30 PM