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January 23, 2008

Clearer but not all clear

Well the Fed chief has shredded his creditability buy flipping to growth worries. And its saved the US markets for now and probably ours but as I have said for a while things have changed and so should your plans. Its no longer buy and forget. Its buy and flip then short and cover. Any rallies here for some time are going to get dumped on by the trapped longs and the now in control shorts. Remember we need some sort of retest with a higher low before we think about starting a new uptrend. A rally for a couple of days is a reason for caution not celebration. Higher low will be the point to celebrate.

It has to be said where are the big funds and when are they going to flex their considerable muscle. Surely they are not going to be happy with matching the index at -20 + 1.

Have a look at the momentum oscillator. It has been worrying reading for over a year now and other than its way oversold reading there is not much to be happy about. As I have pointed out we have been getting great rallies from these meltdowns but thats it. We reach back up then work off the overbought reading then its all over. Less and less participate in the rallies. If you want to get bullish again on the market this thing needs to get strong and stay strong. but it won't it will just roll over again.

Adv_dec_jan_22_08

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  • trembling hand trader At yahoo Dot com Dot au

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  • Disclaimer:
    I make mistakes. Do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that I write about, because I could be wrong. Nothing written here, is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security all I am doing is handing out educated (PhD. school of hard knocks) guesses as to what I think the markets may do and my time frame is minutes to a couple of hours.
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